For weeks now, Warner Bros has been adamant that they will do everything in their power to deliver Christopher Nolan’s Tenet to theaters on July 17, its original release date. Obviously there are hardly any theaters in the US currently open due to the coronavirus pandemic. Worldwide, theaters aren’t doing much better with only a few select countries opening up their screens. Still, WB hasn’t budged Tenet. Yet.

The biggest question in Hollywood is this: will Tenet really debut on the 17th of July or will Warners end up delaying the film? There is no clear answer right now as Deadline writes that the next few weeks will be the determining factor. Sources tell the site that WB needs at least 80% of the world’s theaters to be open in order for them to release Tenet. Specifically, they need New York, LA and San Francisco to be operational since they will make up for 25% of the film’s opening weekend haul. They desire 3,500 theaters in the states and 30,000 worldwide. If it becomes apparent that can’t happen, WB will move Tenet.

Tenet being pushed to the fall or holiday season would create a domino effect with other big-budget movies. Wonder Woman 1984 and Mulan are the only other two major films that have tentative summer release dates. If Tenet gets delayed, those two films will also be delayed and any hope of theaters opening this summer will be dashed. Multiple theater chains are saying that they won’t re-open until Hollywood has something worthy of their re-opening. They won’t turn on their screens just because they can, they want it to coincide with some major releases. So if Tenet moves, the other films do too and theaters will stay dark until fall or even early winter.

There is a lot riding on this movie.

But I honestly feel it is becoming more and more likely that Tenet will not make its July debut. I know we are two months out from the release date but the world has a long ways to go before 30,000 theaters are open. Many nations — including this one — are still in the midst of the COVID-19 battle. Fatality and case numbers may be starting to lower in some areas of the globe but they are still dreadfully high, creating a far too dangerous landscape for movie theaters. I just don’t see the sort of turnaround needed for Tenet’s release. Things will hopefully be better in July — maybe even a lot better. But I doubt they will be good enough for Warner Bros to safely roll out the movie.

But WB swears that the next few weeks will tell the tale. They’re monitoring things closely and will make a final call soon. Yesterday brought us 19,891 new cases of the virus in the United States alone. If we are going to see Tenet on July 17 then that number needs to go down. Way, way down.